A few years ago, the concept of a widely successful prediction market seemed little more than a pipe dream, one littered by past failures and mostly confined to academic circles. Flash forward to 2025, and the ruse of Polymarket—the world’s largest prediction market—has made its 27-year-old founder and CEO, Shayne Coplan, the youngest self-made billionaire, according to Bloomberg.
Coplan reached that milestone after Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, announced plans to invest up to $2 billion into the New York City-based startup at a pre-money valuation of $8 billion. As part of the deal, ICE will distribute Polymarket’s data to institutions worldwide. Coplan described the partnership as “a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream,” according to a statement.
Launched in 2020, Polymarket allows users to bet on outcomes ranging from the next Federal Reserve decision to the duration of the ongoing government shutdown to the winner of the MLB World Series. The platform broke into the mainstream last year after users correctly predicted the winner of the 2024 Presidential election, which generated $3 billion in related bets.
Its new funding gives Polymarket a significant edge over its main competitor, Kalshi, which was last valued at $2 billion this summer. Polymarket had been valued at $1.2 billion earlier this year during a $150 million round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. Other backers include Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, BlockChain Capital, Point72 Ventures and Coinbase.
Who is Shayne Coplan?
Polymarket’s success marks a dramatic turnaround for Coplan, who just a few years ago was an NYU dropout struggling to stay afloat in the crypto industry. At one point, his financial situation was so dire that he reportedly appraised all of his belongings and began selling them off to make rent.
“At the onset of the pandemic, I quite literally had nothing to lose: 21, running out of money, 2.5 years since I dropped out and nothing to show for it,” said Coplan in a post on X yesterday (Oct. 7). “But I knew we were entering an era where ways to find truth would matter more than ever, and Polymarket could play a critical role in that.”
Coplan first became interested in prediction markets after reading a paper on the topic by economist Robin Hanson. In 2020, Coplan took advantage of the Covid-19 lockdown to launch Polymarket while working from a bathroom turned makeshift office.
That’s not to say the journey has been without turbulence. In 2022, Polymarket agreed to ban U.S. users and paid a $1.4 million penalty to settle a case with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Last year, FBI agents raided Coplan’s apartment over concerns that the platform was still serving American users.
In recent months, however, Polymarket has made notable regulatory progress. Earlier this year, investigations by the CFTC and the Justice Department were dropped. In July, the company acquired QCEX, an exchange and clearinghouse, a move that paves the way for a potential U.S. return.
Figures close to the Trump administration have also shown growing openness toward prediction markets. Among Polymarket’s investors is 1789 Capital, a venture capital firm linked to Donald Trump Jr., who this year became an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi.
